As to thoughts of a share price of $50, which I think is a premium of about 150%, I thought I would share this from an article about the US biotech market, in which there have been 94 biotech acqusitions since 2020:
". High takeover premiums – Biotech takeovers typically feature significant control premiums. Since 2020, the average biotech takeover premium was 87.5%, compared to the M&A universe average (ex-biotech) of 41.7%. In addition, takeover over premiums in the biotech sector can soar to truly astronomical levels, with seven deals featuring a takeover premium above 200%, two north of 300%, and one at a stunning 667% premium. Large takeover premiums are extremely rewarding to investors."'
So only about 10% of biotech deals featured premiums above 200%. I'm not saying that Neuren could not be one of them, but when I see suggestions that the figure could be $50 plus scrip, or some of the other valuations that have been bandied about on this forum, I simply wonder if people aren't getting a bit carried away. Hottod makes a valuable point, and that is that the risk is not always worth the reward, and in an industry as fragile as biotech, it would be foolish to plough on into an unknown future if there is a fair and sensible price offered for a takeover.
I have been in Neuren for years now; I think I am somewhere in the top 50 holders judging by the stats released with this report, and I would love to become obscenely wealthy, but if a fair offer was to be put on the table tomorrow, I would grab it, and leave the buyer to the risky, time consuming and expensive task of taking this amazing product to FDA approval.
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