One consideration for me is whether Neuren is best placed to get NNZ-2591 to as many patients as possible, in as many indications as possible, as fast as possible.
Jon has said that a key consideration is getting NNZ-2591 to patients as fast as possible. I guess that means that if all four Phase 2 trials were to be successful, then Neuren would want to advance all four indications as soon as possible. I fear that would be an excessive commitment for the Company, both in terms of manpower and money. However, we only have one trial result at this stage, so it’s too early to say whether this will become a problem.
Also, Jon has said that further NNZ-2591 indications are being actively worked on and will be announced in due course. But when asked about the possibility of running further Phase 2 trials during last December’s webinar, he baulked, saying that would be a massive undertaking given the four indications that the Company is already pursuing and that one “shouldn’t expect any new trials to be initiated any time soon.” Which I think would be a pity.
Were a large pharma to run the show, concurrent Phase 3 trials and further Phase 2 trials would be feasible. But it could not be assured.
A second consideration for me is the risk of cost and time blow outs if NEU were to go it alone. Opthea had both. Acadia met its timelines admirably but the original estimate of US$65m to run the Phase 3 Rett trial blew out enormously. I think the probability of either cost and/or time blow outs for Phase 3 trials is higher than not.
A third consideration is the size and nature of any offer. It’s fine to have a preference for a T/O sometime in the next 12 months versus in another 3 years 5 years or 10 years, but what if an offer was put forward later this year for, say, just $35 per share? Or for a very modest amount with a large contingent component? My preference for a T/O would probably change.
A further consideration is what might happen to the share price over the multi-year period before Phase 3 results if NEU goes it alone. My experience suggests that the share price would see an extended downturn, despite all the obvious longer-term opportunity.
Finally, from my own selfish perspective, I think I am just about ready to let go. A bit like when I knew it was time for my kids to fly the coop! Like many others here, I have no shortage of other investment ideas and life plans and I’m not getting any younger!
So, yes, on balance my preference is for a T/O within the next 12 months rather than to see out Phase 3 trials, but with my years in the market now, I am also quite wary of what offer might get dished up. Meanwhile, I try to remain open-minded about the issue and always keep firmly in mind that I ultimately have no control over whatever is decided.
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