NCM 0.00% $23.35 newcrest mining limited

I feel somewhat obliged to declare my status with respect to NCM...

  1. 674 Posts.
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    I feel somewhat obliged to declare my status with respect to NCM in light of my positive posts of late. I seek advice from two independent brokers. I received calls from both over the last few days in relation to Tom Palmer's comments regarding the impact of the deal on CDI holders in Australia. They both (independently) said their read was that the lack of liquidity will be a big negative in the short term. The fact that Palmer will visit Australia in the next few weeks to talk up the deal and attempt to allay concerns about the illiquid ASX market for NEM CDIs, has concerned me. He even admitted a secondary listing will be looked at down the track (but not now). As I've posted before, half of NCM shareholding rests with large institutional investors who will have NYSE Pershing accounts and therefore will transfer their holding to the US. Some other large shareholders (not being T20 holders) will also transfer. The liquidity on the Aus market is therefore more than halved. In addition , as pointed out from other posters, the large institutional investors will now be forced to rebalance their portfolios on the basis they would conceivably own both NCM and NEM shares. Post TO they will own more shares in NEM.NYSE than previously. This will force a sell off on the US market which will of course rebound in Aus. Therefore the ASX market for NEM should take a pounding in the early weeks post TO. I therefore have acted in what I believe is my best interest to liquidate my NCM holding and re-enter the CDI market at what time I believe will be a SP substantially below the franked spec div impact on NCM. That is I believe the NCM share price will fall substantially lower than say $2 AUD ex spec div. I am still positive long on NEM but I feel I can buy in lower on either NCM ex spec div market or CDIs market a few months down the track . I have taken $60k profit on NCM since the deal was announced and have off-loaded 70k units over the last few days . My holding is currently nil. If all goes well I believe I will be in a position to re-enter when the fallout is known. Posting this FWIW.
 
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