Reflecting on all the commentary here, and on my own track...

Reflecting on all the commentary here, and on my own track record of prognostications & sometimes even smug remarks here in the past, I think I can say with a great deal of certainty, that I know jack shit. I also suspect all the commentary is mainly of entertainment value. What's more, the smarter the commentary sounds, the more dangerous it is (because it leads us to forget that it really is mainly entertainment).

To sum up my sentiments: I know little (the wise one's, who are less vocal, would have worked that out a while ago), and I apologize to anyone that I may have misled in the past. I also apologize to myself, because I have been the most misled of all.

Here's what I think I do know (which we all know, but may oft forget, in all the noise):

1. We don't know how PTM will play out.
2. There is currently extreme uncertainty. That uncertainty is very public.
3. Uncertainty is one of the most powerful drivers of prices (I'll let you decide in which direction).
4. A powerful public narrative been established that this is a sunset industry & what's more, this is a business in decline. This is not yet an overwhelming narrative, though it is becoming so. This may be a powerful driver of prices (likely counterweighted by the still substantial alternate narrative that PTM can recover it's glory, at least in part).
5. Points 2 to 4 do not negate the possibility that the business could, from here, suffer terminal decline (here's looking at you outflows). We need to keep reminding ourselves that a rational bet (if that's even what this is) can still have a negative outcome.
6. The fact the major shareholder is a savvy investor who understands how to drive business outcomes and is a person of integrity (I believe) gives a level of comfort, though not certainty.