Having looked more closely at the past few years.I think that...

Having looked more closely at the past few years.

I think that the new business has been steadily declining. The market may view this as a negative. I font think you can look at insurance that way. You have assets and then you have liabilities. The liabilities are a reflection of future claims based on current policies. You have actuaries that eork these complex situations out. They have one limitation- a change in circumstances. Its my view that we have one hrre. Since the government stepped in it seems harder to obtsin a mortgage- its anecdotal but we have all heard that often banks cannot approve loan because of Uber eats or some pattern of expenditure. Its my view that its simpler than that - reality is any tightening of scoring will make a whole lot of applicants at the bottom drop off. That in itself should reflect in lower claims. However that change of circumstance can only be predicted after the pattern emerges.
So I view that as being reflected by the increase of ROE.
So the business isnt probably going to increase in sales but by now should hsve started to settle. However the better claims experience is what underpins my valuation.
I think their result is good in light of a changing market. I also think that government is going to have to address housing affordability at some point.
So lower new sales is more than offset by lower clsims and thus the NTA is probably understated as this pricess unfolds. This isnt my growth stock but my Super stock as the franking on the 15 cents covers the super tax liability. If I own it personally I have to fund the extra tax out of the 45c as 30c in unfranked. Just take a corporate - they get 45c but they have to psy an extra 8c tax. As an individual its likely you have to fund an even hihher smount.
The uncertainty is that the assets are defined, it is the liabilities that is a bit fluid as they unfold - that has an element of risk. Markets dont like risk. I think that right now the value may well be around what it is trading at but my view is that I am betting on the future being getter than reflected. The liabilities unfolding as lower tgan recorded and the company earning around 20% ROE. That makes it a great cash cow in super.
I could be wrong but you did ask - lol