Ann: 2023 Half-Year Results Presentation, page-7

It's an upgrade (of sorts), but off a low base.

If there is one picture that warrants discussion, it is this one:



Expect that to undergo a very meaningful unwind in the current half (if it doesn't then some senior management heads will need to roll, because - while working capital won't ever be zero again, the company exited DH2022 with it being a good $40m higher than where it should be.

And at current interest rats, the interest bill and associated bank charges on that sloppy working capital management is probably close to $3m pa.  

Which is not a totally immaterial amount in the context of around $75n of Pre-Tax Profits.


They say that to make money out of stocks requires two criteria to be met, namely a business that is:

1.) Cheap, and
2.) Inflecting

PGH has satisfied 1.) for some time, but 2.) has been elusive.

I thought 2.) would become evident with the full-year result.

Based on this result, that inflection point may have been brought forward 6 months (if not already inflecting, then at least clearly bottoming):