Only very low grade left but no surprise there, actually marginally higher grade/tonnes than my spreadsheet albeit rounding error levels. Someone must have been shocked judging by open auction though, hopefully new uptrend restored this morning.... it's a value play now with little LOM production upside priced in.
So today's Reserve update is a reminder Kwale is dying with a whimper and prayer for KE exploration miracle. BSE are desperate to extend and pretend in the hope of exploration leases held up for so many years being awarded for one last chance at salvation by the drill bit. Too little too late realistically, given the years it takes in this part of the world to get landowner approval for exploration programmes, the exploration, discovery, feasibility studies, community and mining approvals etc. Possible but rightly that was all priced down to zero before the last quarterly.
All is not lost, a possible BSE-STA East African arranged marriage looks a good outcome for the shareholders of both. A match made in Tanzania is hardly a match made in heaven, but if you can't have the one you want, then love the one you're with right. Recent history demonstrates STA lacks the management nouse or experience to successfully develop a simple min sand mine in Oz, let alone East Africa. Coburn's ramp-up face plant leaves STA with longer to try and generate enough cash on probably below nameplate production/margins, with whatever free cashflow generated not required for debt repayments earmarked for a 50% Coburn expansion. STA may want to stay single and develop Tajari alone, but it looks a financial bridge too far (as most singles trying to save a deposit and buy housing in Oz would agree).
BSE have substantial cash on hand and at worst case Toliara delayed into the never-never while Madagascar starves. BSE have US$100's millions of Kwale mining plant and equipment, Wet plant, Dry Plant, established east African team, experience in developing and running East African min sand mines obviously, and a great ESG and community reputation having not put a foot wrong over their 10 year journey. BSE would love to keep mining their own deposits with Kwale plant, but there's a very good chance any Tinder partner's left to hit on will also be a knock-back... also single and desperately looking for love.
STA's Tajari is just down the road across the border in Tanz, with a 2020 scoping study aiming for 8Mtpa at 3.6% THM grade LOM on identical Ilm, Zir but lower rut grades. Modest grades and good tonnes, their dating profile would say something like "ideal partner loves to work with slime".
Happy days, handsome BSE used to have a problem with slimes but now loves the stuff, thanks to significant investment and expertise in hydraulic mining. Seems STA has already cheekily 'liked' BSE posts in the past, including a hot pic of Kwale's hydro-mining units in action in their SS (10m ore face, check out the guns on BSE
).
Thing with min sand mining is it's really a bulk-mining economies of scale thing. Tajari's SS contemplated 8mtpa processing, probably in an effort to keep the ludicrously un-estimated capex down to something achievable that didn;t frighten the market. Kwale's mining units, wet plant and dry plant is built to ~16Mtpa at similar 3.6% THM grade, and how much better would Tajari's economics stack up at double the production rate for little additional opex min sand hydro-mining being what it is!
Kwale Production Capacity 
It's not cheap or easy to pull down, transport and re-build plant but it should still be a damn side cheaper than buying from scratch. Done well and no shipping required, just carefully manage and implement the re-location (probably don;t have STA involved might be best of current form) driving loaders down the highway and re-assemble in Tanz. Not sure what sort of dowry STA are expecting for their Tajari virginity, but doubt anyone except China would be another suitor. There is a premium for remaining outside Chinese control and supply chain these days, and between the Kwale plant replacement value, time savings on plant move vs new build, in-continent teams (sorry for the distasteful pun given how both stocks have soiled their share price last 12 months haha) and some cash for relocation thrown in, surely the marriage is an attractive proposition. At least it provides a value-add option for BSE and competitive tension in the dating scene for STA.
Biggest things standing in the way of a successful marriage imo are management egos', unrealistic sense of self-worth and incompetence... so probably just an outside chance of happening
GLTAH
