I had a cursory look at a previous bull market in gold a few...

I had a cursory look at a previous bull market in gold a few months back
needless to say i am broadly against hedging in a bull market without just cause.

here are some observations from the last bull run in australian dollar priced gold 2018-2020



the only hedge that had any meaningful gain was the final top of the gold run, howeever it was also the exact start of the XGD bear market, so i dont really think its relevant unless you consiously intend to hold forever including through sector bear markets. thats being said, it would be relevant in terms of profit / dividends to large holders who are not able to liquidate

.ive recorded the 91 day and 182 day moving averages to get an average spot price for 3 and 6 months after the start of each window
this is assuming the most generous circumstance that nostradamus could pick to the very dollar of the top of each run.

Pivot 1: 3 month -8.50 6 month -62.50
Pivot 2: 3 month +66 6 month -59
Pivot 3: 3 month -88 6 month -138
Pivot 4: 3 month +137 6 month -172

only 2 out of 8 secenarios of picking the absolute perfect top worked selecting 3 or 6 month durations from each pivot top.
obviously if you fail to pick the exact top, the window for being under taht point rapidly shrinks... so trying picking both price and duration for the sole purposes of increasing margin is insane.. you would have to be plain daft.

the exceptions to that are circumstances outside of that profit margin motive,, such as securing funding