Must agree somewhat with you mate, "it's about luck now!"
Probability of a technical success (copper not REE) is high with work from past explorers and RCR to date. There's widespread copper at surface so the geochem is a tick, past holes show distal assays of copper in the right host rock for IOCG (IO = magnetite/hematite) deposits and RCR's geophysical data has interpreted the right drill locations to point the rig to hopefully higher grades - nearly all IOCG deposits share the same characteristic of residing in a gravity high and typically proximal to mag high.
Will this information guarantee a technical success? I put the odds at 10/1.
Will this information guarantee an economic intersection? I put the odds at 20/1.
Will this information guarantee finding an economic deposit? I put the odds at 100/1.
I'm not dreaming, just punting that RCR will at minimum have some technical success that the market will like, and as a punter I see the upside with similar returns and willing to risk a small amount of downside from here to find out, and will buy more if I see any evidence of an economic hit pointing to the discover of an IOCG deposit.
Copper in hematite = tick
DD hole with chalcopyrite (copper) + quartz in magnetite = tick
Geophysics where there's been no drilling, distal to prior intersections and above surface geochem with large IOCG gravity anomaly at depth = tick
(20min delay)