I agree it's great value here, but we'll probably have to be patient for a while. On my calcs, SMR is roughly FCF breakeven at current coal prices, which seem unsustainable.
If you assume a long-term HCC price of US$200/t and PCI realisation of 75%, SMR is trading on a FCF yield of ~15%. If you bump the long-term HCC price up to US$210/t, it's closer to 20%.
The bull case would be a long-term HCC price of US$225/t and PCI realisation of 80%, in which case SMR is trading on a FCF yield of 30%. These wouldn't have seemed like crazy assumptions until recently, but sentiment currently sucks.
Ann: 2024 Full Year Financial Results Investor Presentation, page-5
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Last
$2.36 |
Change
-0.090(3.67%) |
Mkt cap ! $2.127B | |||
| Open | High | Low | Value | Volume |
| $2.45 | $2.45 | $2.35 | $5.635M | 2.364M |
Buyers (Bids)
| No. | Vol. | Price($) |
|---|---|---|
| 5 | 27687 | $2.35 |
Sellers (Offers)
| Price($) | Vol. | No. |
|---|---|---|
| $2.37 | 9777 | 3 |
View Market Depth
| Last trade - 16.13pm 25/07/2025 (20 minute delay) ? |
| SMR (ASX) Chart |