Trump tariffs on China, should surely have the Chinese look at switching coal importation from the USA to Australia.
Chart wise on weekly $1.40 imo absolute rock bottom. Two significant resistance points in time, in 2010/11 and mid 2019
Stanmore did not achieve first production until 2016. In 2019 saleable product was 2.9mil tonnes (SOI 256,094,238) and in FY24 it was 13.8mil tonnes (SOI circa 900mil).
Stanmore is certainly a different beast now than it was when $1.40 resistance dominated in 201/11 and 2019.
Currently the lack of buyers in coal stocks hasn't helped with any reversal on this downtrend, i thought most of March it was trying to find a base between 2.24 and 2.35, but then it rolled over.
If Trump could simply shut up and park his oversized ego in the garage, it is possible that capitulation has been on display over the last three days.
Imo once secondary support of around $2.00 went and the world realised the possible damage of the "New America" it drew out more selling.
Imo $1.80 - $1.85 is good buying, if you don't mind facing the stampeding herd as they head for the exits.
Last time we were in this zone is when BMC Mitsui Coal occurred (some 630mil shares issued for the CR) in March 2022, FY2022 saleable production Circa 4mil tonnes.
Saleable production FY2023 13.2mil tonnes. (BMC achieved approx 11mil tonnes for the 12 months prior to the acquisition).
I am optimistic that an upper price of $3.20 could be achieved in time, however an intermediate target of $2.82 is doable from here (lines up with the selling candles of 5/2/25 and 24/2/25).
SMR Price at posting:
$1.84 Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
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