S32 1.60% $3.68 south32 limited

Ann: 2024 Full Year Financial Results, page-18

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  1. 223 Posts.
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    Source UBS:

    South32:FY24in line; cash returns lift after restructuring. Wemaintain a Buy on S32 as we expect Al & Cu prices to lift in 2025,offsetting the normalisation in alumina. We are encouraged S32 is to recoverproperty damage & business interruption costs at GEMCO through insurance;however, the competitiveness of Worsley remains at risk due to the onerouspermitting conditions (release); there will be more visibility on this at endCY24. We trim FY25/26 EBITDA by ~10% due to higher costs at Worsley, Cannington& SA Mn, and lower PT to £1.95/sh or R48/sh (from £2.10/sh or R51/sh)(based on 1x NPV & 5.0x EV/EBITDA). In our opinion, the valuation isattractive with S32 trading at a spot FCF yield (pre growth) of >10% at spot& UBSe. We see potential for S32 to restructure Samancor over next 12mths.

 
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