Based on the latest dividend of $0.0378 USD @ 90% payout ratio the implied quarterly profit = $0.042 USD. Annualised = $0.168 USD converted to AUD @ 63cents = $0.2666 AUD profit. Current SP @ $2.46 is therefore PE 9.22 and it's relatively unlikely that profit will not grow quarter on quarter.
The declared dividend in Feb 2023 was $0.0187 USD and in Feb 2024 was $0.026 USD. Annualised growth in dividend over past 2 years of over 40%. Therefore, I'm expecting next year's profit to be closer to $0.30 AUD which places GQG on a 2026 PE of 8.16.
This could easily trade at twice the current multiple. SP is currently held back by the poor net flows of the past 2 months, which is a valid concern and a few investment mis-steps did have a substantial impact on flows.
Flows are currently dominated by the Americas, the strong growth in UK, Europe & Australia will progressively diversify the flows. If they continue to compound at current rates, flows from these geographies could contribute 25 - 30% of total flows within 2-3 years. If they achieve that then the market will pay a substantially higher multiple as it would reflect a more resilient flow profile. Very interesting business and continues to exceed expectations.
GQG Price at posting:
$2.46 Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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