Well we know that the Trofinetide (US only) deal was made post phase-2. It was a larger blinded trial, but the results weren't that strong. That deal was $10m upfront, up to 455m USD one off payments, plus tiered royalties. The global deal was made at a later stage (post Phase 3) but was 100m upfront plus up to $427m of milestone payments + better royalities. Given this is all for a single indication and we have three right now I would suspect a deal that is being turned down now would be a minimum of $1bn+ of one-offs ($50m upfront, development milestones and sales milestones) with a 15% royality on net sales which could be peak at $750m USD (1bn~ AUD) ~ annual royality income to Neuren in about 5 years time. I figure they would turn that down because shareholders would need to wait a further few years to see the rewards, and the maximum Neuren could get out of this deal might be 3-5bn~ compared with the 5bn+ they are seeking for NNZ-2591 alone which could be potentially conserative.
NEU Price at posting:
$12.94 Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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