Hey KP,
I wouldn't be too sure about this. Depending on how far the reporting of Nextstellis for commissions was behind - there is a fair chance Mithra were exposed to Nov and Dec figures - which are devastating - but not January.
As investors we need to be realistic too - and maybe investor relations know how to play the game - those January figures (+10%) for Nextstellis and the commentary around EBITDA which paint a rosy picture on still challenging numbers (EBITDA is effectively -$14m still, cashflow still going out too fast) are a huge part of the reason MYX bounced.
IF Nexstellis figures were:
Jul 23 - 33k, Aug 23 - 38k, Sep 23 - 35k, Oct 23 - 40k, Nov 23 - 38k, Dec 23 - 40k, Jan 24 - 39k (*)
3% mOm with no growth for 3 months
Instead of:
Jul 23 - 33k, Aug 23 - 38k, Sep 23 - 35k, Oct 23 - 40k, Nov 23 - 38k, Dec 23 - 40k, Jan 24 - 44.4k
5.7% mOm with 11% in the last month
Where do you think the share price would be? And how outrageous would Hadrian's estimates of Jun 24 - 68k, Jan 25 - 125k & Jun 25 - 192k look? (Still does, as that's +$150m NET profit in 18mnths (FY25))
When Mithra sold, they saw the top scenario and remember the 3M to 4M savaging the market gave us because of no Nextstellis growth! (refer Chart Sept)
Expand
(20min delay)