The likelihood of an oil shock surpassing the scale of the 70's is increasing significantly with open talk of potentially targetting Iranian and other Middle East oil facilities and it affecting shipping in the Strait of Hormuz. If it happens then necessity will likely be the driver of vastly increased EV adoption and put a rocket up those who see the need to establish secure battery supply chains but the increased threat level already should be enough for that. What we need to see is a sense of urgency in the industry and Government.
Enough of the wait and see approach, at this stage the US election is decreasing in relevance to the massive global recession that would be triggered if things get out of hand in the M.E. What's the threat if Trump wins to BSX/Australian critical minerals? The IRA Act goes and tarrrifs are introduced on all goods imported to US but what scale of attacks on Iranian facilities might Trump support, carry out or provoke? Is the outcome of the election capable of influencing events in the M.E anymore?
Whatever happens December will be a different world, the election is exactly one month away on Nov 5. The October Surprise might be a Middle Eastern influenced one and it might affect the price and availability of oil, particularly given the scale of destruction in that industry in Russia already. China relies heavily on Middle Eastern oil supplied via the Strait of Hormuz. Their nickel surplus might get eaten up in a rush to EV's
The first targets in war are usually fuel supplies and communication networks. The Australian Defence Force is seeking to build an electric vehicle fleet because it is a necessity, it needs a secure, regional and friendly battery supply chain.
The PM is heading to the ASEAN Summit next week in Laos. I hope he's been sufficiently briefed, perhaps he could bring up the topic of the refinery with the Vietnamese Leadership.
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