Ann: 2025 Half-Year Results Release, page-9

That guidance statement - tepid/negative but with no quantification - is exactly what I would say if I wanted to attempt to depress the stock before another bid.The reality is that a lot of 1H cash movements were either transitory (big jump in W/C will revert in 2H); or abnormal (restructuring costs and higher tax rates, eating most of VRM sales proceeds). These will revert or drop out and biz should gush cash. Obviously when that happens RG will want to be sole beneficiary...biggest point of note from the release was MPH performance. they put up 24% EBITDA margins, 17.5% EBIT margins, and 22% rev growth - driven almost entirely by the 100% owned assets (ie not the 50% JV they sold into Viscount Reuse), and simply the result of higher volumes delivered into fixed investments over past two years. They are run-rating something like $70-75mm in EBITDA in this segment...sure they may not do quite as well in 2H but this is a segment Kroll, in their valuation work, said was only worth $38mm of 'maintainable' EBITDA, a couple of years ago...and that said EBITDA could only be capped at 5x...a complete travesty.The reality is if MPH were revalued properly today it would garner 10x on $70mm EBITDA (or something close), call it $600-700mm, versus the $200mm Kroll valued it at in late 2023. that delta alone - $400-500mm - is $1.3 per PGH share, at the mids.

one final thought: if you reran all of Kroll's valuation work, applying the same low multiple (6x blended) against the current EV and earnings power, adjusting for everything and taxing the EV $30mm for the TIC lawsuit etc and giving only partial credit for W/C flow back in 2H this year, you get $2.05 a share. If you give the biz a blended 7x multiple, you get $2.85 a share.The stock today is a $1.15 a share. The only rational reason RG should wait is if he thinks 1) he can scare the stock meaningfully lower; and/or 2) business performance is going to be so bad in the next 6-12mos that it wont generate meaningful cash to the equity. This latter point I guess is possible. But absent that this business should generate FCF in 2H, and 1H next year, which will balloon into equity value, which will only increase the $ he is going to have to pay in the end.For these reasons I believe he is better off trying to clean this up at $1.5-$2, than have to pay $3+, in 18months or so.