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You are not serious that you belief that the market reacts...

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Imo

430 Posts.

39

28/08/16

17:31

Post #: 18747060
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Originally posted by wombat53 ↑

"For us investors is important what the perception of her blubber to the 'professional investment avantgarde' is" - true. What counts is not what was said, but the market's reaction to it (see below)

"and that is pretty hard to guess"
No, is quite obvious what the market thinks (correctly or otherwise).
I posted this on EVN recently:
"markets are ALL behaving rationally in response to that widely watched Speech.
ALL major Currency pairs fell (i.e. USD rose) = anticipation of rate hike;
US 10 Year T-Notes rose over 3.6% = anticipation of rate hike;|
US Equities fell (a bit) = anticipation of rate hike;
Gold itself fell (after initially soaring, always wild swings at such moments) = anticipation of rate hike, but see below.
So, all markets, in all asset classes, are in sync.
Personally, I don't see a rate hike this year (but what I think is irrelevant, the market is speaking loud and clear) as I've said many times on Gold Forum, and so far, I've been right, and recall there's a quadrennial Presidential Election (and also many others, Congress, States etc.) Nov 8, despite Fed Dep. Chair Fischer saying (some highlights), after Yellen spoke:
" *FISCHER: FED IS RESOLUTELY NOT A POLITICAL BODY
*FISCHER: WE AREN'T ELECTION FORECASTERS; LOOK AT ECO. SIGNALS"
Yeah, sure.
Even if we do see a hike in Sept (impossible), then what? As I mentioned above I think the inverse correlation is overrated."

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You are not serious that you belief that the market reacts always rational? Who is the market? Mainly what I call the economic cheer squad and/or analyst/economists which are engaged by the big institutions to create a market reactions (for economic gain obviously), One day it might be your anticipated reaction next time it might be the opposite going against the economic theory which was quoted at a similar number last time. Who knows? You might know more than I do and good to have you on board. Imo

BLK Price at posting: 88.5¢ Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
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