Yeah, agreed. But what percentage of project equity will Atlas...

Yeah, agreed. But what percentage of project equity will Atlas flog off? 30% for $150M or 100% for $500M? And whose price assumptions do you trust? Flannagans $500M because he looked at CFE and thinks everyone's dense enough to buy iron for stupid money, or does he look at the other deals such as GBG which would value it (cash in hand) at closer to $150M?

If he takes a GBG style model, or an ARH model, you have a goof 5 to 10 year lead-in to mining, with very little in the way of juicy price-sensitive stock-invigorating stuff to pump out. You're in bed with a major Chinese steel maker (who may want 30% of AGO - which means 30% of Pardoo and Abydos, by the by) who moves slowly and methodically and could try a takeover at any stage, or could fart around for months doing and redoing all sorts of stuff, and you need patience which I think Atlas doesn't have. It wants a nice quick buck, simple direct to port exporting and cash in hand. Its not about building mini-cities in the bush and making a gigantic pit which will last 40 years - hence the idea to flog it out for cash.

The two strategies are mutually exclusive. Even Merril Lynch assumed Atlas would just flog it for quick bucks, and Flannagan's concurred. But as you say, $300M a year for 30 or 60 or 90 years...well, thats a lot of money.

So, if Atlas grows up into a magnetite miner, and drops this fantasy of quick bucks, they'll find things will go a lot smoother. People don't buy BHP because it gets a 5 year mine life and flogs its assets the moment they find them for quick bucks. They buy BHP for the long term, the multiple booms and busts, the steady drip drip drip of dividends.

The way Atlas is going, its a quick ego-affirming flame for the Board, a nice ramp to $16 and palm it off in a takeover, and retire to Mallorca with your maseratis and mai-tais. Good for some, but not the right message in this market I suspect. Hence the savaged share price.