from my reading I agree with your summary, and in particular...

from my reading I agree with your summary, and in particular about the potential for such a small illiquid stock to move in the 5 day period the average price is set.
when I first saw the spp announcement I was pretty happy to support in seeing the headline 20% discount.
as you have said, not knowing the price the discount is applied against is a double edged sword. The caution for me is that the inside crew, underwriter, etc could be driving the price, before and after the raising. As a run of the mill retail holder I am less comfortable sending in funds when with a bit of shaky, shaky, my price per share could vary significantly plus or minus the 2c the stock has hovered about for a while.

the cynic in me would hypothesise, that if early subscriptions to the spp are high the 5 day gets pushed up to minimise dilution, whereas if early uptake is weak the 5 day could be tanked so underwriting shortfall is picked up at basement prices.

Surely the more equitable and transparent positioning would have been to set the spp price at 20% discount on 5 day average at time spp was announced, ie about 1.6c or so.