It is worth giving some thought to the future opportunities and...

It is worth giving some thought to the future opportunities and the potential size of the market for 2RT. Here are some notes I have taken (not sure if the links will work).

Ageing Populations: the challenges ahead. KaareChristensen

Ageingpopulations_ the challenges ahead.pdf

o Ifthe pace of increase in life expectancy in developed countries over the past twocentruies continues through the 21^st century, most babies born since2000 in France, Germany, Italy, the UK, the USA, Canada, Japan, and othercountries with long life expectancies will celebrate their 100^thbirthdays. Although trends differ between countries, populations of nearly allsuch countries are ageing as a result of low fertility, low immigration, andlong lives.

o Theoldest-old group (aged >85 years) have over past decades been the mostrapidly expanding segment of the population in developed countries. This groupis also the most susceptible to disease and disability. Development ofmortality, disease and disability rates in elderly people will therefore have afundamental effect on sustainability of modern society.

o Mortality

o Lifeexpectancy is lengthening almost linearly in most developed countries, with nosign of deceleration.

§ Thelinear increase in record life expectancy for more than 165 years does notsuggest a looming limit to human lifespan. If life expectancy were approachinga limit, some deceleration of progress would probably occur. Continuedprogress in the longest living populations suggests that we are not close to alimit, and further rise in life expectancy seems likely. [SFJ1]

§ Datafrom more than 30 developed countries showed that in 1950 the probability ofsurvival from age 80 to 90 was on average 15-16% for women and 12% for men. In2002, these values were 37% and 25.










It is also worth remembering how global this condition is. Despite AMD largely impacting older Caucasian individuals its impact on those less at risk nations is also profound. The discussion on the impact on quality life is especially interesting, and indicates that margins that could be achieved due to the necessity of a treatment.

Burden of Wet Age Related Macular Degeneration and ItsEconomic Implication in Singapore in the Year 2030 (2016)

Burdenof Wet Age-Related Macular Degeneration and Its Economic Implications inSingapore in the Yea.pdf

o RESULTS: An estimated growth of 42% in the number of wet AMD cases is expected by 2030. The estimated economic burden of wet AMD in 2030 for scenarios 1 and 2 is $203.1 million and 162.9 million, respectively. The quality-adjusted life years gained as a result of improved visual acuity from wet AMD treatment ranged from 10,113 to 14,058 over a 5-year period for the 2030 cohort.

o CONCLUSION: The burden of wet AMD is set to increase over the next 15 years. Appropriate measures to build healthcare capacity and plan for this expected surge in patients should be a priority in Singapore.

o It is estimated that by the year 2040, 288 million people worldwide will have a form of AMD.

o The burden of AMD on society is huge. Brown and colleagues showed that mild AMD caused a 17% decrease in quality of life of the average patient, which is similar to that encountered with moderate cardiac angina or symptomatic human immunodeficiency virus syndrome. Moderate AMD caused a 32% decrease in the average patients quality of life, comparable to severe cardiac angina or a fractured hip. Severe AMD caused a 53% decrease in quality of life, which is higher than that of renal hemodialysis. Very severe AMD caused a 60% decrease in the average AMD patient’s quality of life, similar to that encountered with end-stage prostate cancer or a catastrophic stroke.

o The economic burden of AMD is high. A recent study conducted by Saxena and co-workers showed that the medical costs of treating a cohort of patients with category 3 and 4 AMD (category 3; extensive intermediate drusen, geographic atrophy GA, not involving the center of the macula, or at least 1 large drusen; category 4; advanced AMD or visual acuity, VA, >20/32 due to AMD in 1 eye) ranged from Singapore dollars 282.8 million to $510.7 million for a 5 year period depending on the type of treatment given.

(excuse the bad copy and paste from my notes on word)