I appreciate what you are saying, but if you still believe that AKO isn't dead in the water just yet, and there is a lot of potential, then as per the post from @Spacexplorer, it could be an opportunity to average down.
16c to 12c is a 25% decrease, whereas 12c to 16c is a 33% increase.
I am not saying you should do this, but maybe you could consider it? I have been buying when and where I can.
Also, in terms of the near term catalysts, that I see which have potential...
Exploration Success (as you mentioned):
- Bekisopa infill. This program has the potential to increase the resource size as some holes are "step out" holes (new holes not on the known ore body - as I understand it). Due maybe in September.
- Satrokala maiden. 1000m planned, hopefully we get 1200m - 1400m drilled. Photos of the drill cores would be nice (similar to what we had with Bekisopa in the early days), and mention of the "black water", similar to the drilling at Bekisopa that Paul mentioned would be extremely positive news. Due maybe in October.
- Satrokala has the potential to be a game changer. Whilst there isn't the outcropping like at Bekisopa, there is a probability that the ore bodies will have a lot of similarities. Could there be DSO? How does it upgrade? Is it DRI suitable? What are the levels of impurities? Did all 10 x 100m holes start and end in ore?
- DSO at Satrokala would be excellent because of the very low cost and straightforward process and equipment requirements.
Off take Agreement (as you mentioned)
- Obviously this would be huge, but what are the dependencies on this? Bulk sampling? How much would they pay for the samples?
- Would we put all of our eggs in one basket and go with one partner? Or would we like to go with 2?Mining code
- As per the post from Nonpolar that linked to the news article, the IMF / World Bank are applying the screws for the mining code to be formalised in October.
Bulk Sample
- This will be an important part of any off take agreement, I think there was mention of producing 5,000 tonnes for sharing with potential customers. Timeline yet to be determined, but one would hope that it would be sooner rather than later. If not, we may need to wait until the mining code is formalised - likely in October. Let's just assume it is January 2025 (3 months after the mining code is announced)
- From the scoping study, we know the trucks initially recommended are 40t capacity, which would mean 125 truck loads to transport the 5,000t to port
- I would expect the company would use the existing port facilities for this relatively small sample.
- Lots of data would also be discovered about the work that would need to be done on road upgrades etc. Perhaps the company could stockpile the material and transport it in one go? How easily do the trucks travel the load with 40t? Could larger trucks be used? What about the use of trailers?
PFS
- The PFS is another degree of confidence, which in theory should allow us to go directly to mining if the numbers make sense, and the board and investors mutually agree. The PFS is due probably early 2025, so lets say February 2025. Anything earlier would be a bonus.
- There is a lot of work that is also being done to complete the PFS, there are a lot of questions about the logistics and port solutions, there may be some news related to that in the near term, or maybe it will all be saved for the PFS, who knows.
- Environmental studies are important, having all of these come back with low impact would be a positive.
- Upgrades to the mining process as per my post above with relation to "drum separation" could have a huge impact on profitability of the project.
- Confirmation that we don't need to drill and blast the DSO would be extremely positive for the commercials of the project.
I think there is a lot of positive to come from the company in the next 6 months.
I can't guarantee that the share price will be higher, but I can guarantee is that if all of these things come back positive, we get a mining code and mining licence, Madagascar stays politically stable, we sign an off take and can raise $50m in funds, and the team can execute as per expectations, then adding a 0 to the end of the share price (so $1.20 per share based on yesterday's close) shouldn't be an unrealistic expectation.
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12.0¢ |
Change
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Mkt cap ! $14.45M |
Open | High | Low | Value | Volume |
0.0¢ | 0.0¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | 0 |
Buyers (Bids)
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2 | 14221 | 12.0¢ |
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12.5¢ | 73964 | 1 |
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1 | 70000 | 0.115 |
1 | 100000 | 0.100 |
1 | 100000 | 0.090 |
1 | 150000 | 0.087 |
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
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0.125 | 73964 | 1 |
0.135 | 40004 | 1 |
0.150 | 99796 | 4 |
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0.160 | 63967 | 1 |
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