Quick scan of the quarterly and it is not too bad.
Skip the P&L and go straight to cash flow.
If production next Q is about 1.4m (sell the same amount) and the price averages $42, we should see $20mil in operating cash flow in the next quarterly.
They will take a long time to repay debt at this rate, but every $1 increase in price is about $5.6mil in Free cash flow per annum from here on.
If by chance the price were to rise to 50 next year, they throw off 120mil in free cash flow.
At that rate they make inroads and have a lot of capacity to negotiate with lenders. The credit risk drops and the value of equity increases substantially. Not to 5 or $10 a share but you can see your way to $1 with upside to $2.
Quick scan of the quarterly and it is not too bad. Skip the P&L...
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