Ann: $30m Equity Raising to Advance Sheffield Growth Strategy, page-23

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Franpower

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22/03/23

14:30

Post #: 66901413
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Originally posted by Alejandro1: ↑

Am I correct to say that with 400M SOI (assuming it rises no further) that there is an expected NPAT return to shareholders of $1.75 per share over the first five years, or 5 CPS per year equalling a PE of 10 at current SP.

Total EBITDA of year 1-4 is expected to be $564M. I will assume 30% of that is converted to NPAT. That comes to NPAT of $169M over the first 4 years or $42M per year.

$42M distributed over 400M SOI is 10 cents per share of EPS per year, representing a PE of 5?

Now those are numbers for the whole project, correct? SFX owns 50% of the entire project which would mean they would only be entitled to 5 cents of total EPS which would represent a PE of 10 at current SP.

Even if NPAT were to double to 84M per year it would still look as a somewhat average ROI over 10 years with current PE of 5. That is if everything goes according to plan and costs do not balloon nor do commodity prices slump and production figures are hit every single time. For those of us with mining backgrounds, we can appreciate how difficult it is for all this to go to plan.

I will note that when one takes into account whole life of mine EBITDA of $8.1B averaged out, SFXs share comes to $78M NPAT per year on average, which is a significant improvement on the initial 4 years. I have not taken into account debt repayments over the mine life which will naturally have a material impact.

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I'd like to chime in quickly before 2ic's inevitable and most probably detailed analysis of your post is delivered and explains why your way of dissecting the numbers is flawed.

Well actually, I think that makes my point.

more to come from 2ic (or maybe BaliHai) shortly I hope.

SFX Price at posting: 49.0¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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