Based upon the release - second half sales will average US$217/t...

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macca64

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11/03/22

10:12

Post #: 60132085
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Originally posted by Megamao: ↑

It's a good sight when report coming out in the morning before market opens rather than sneak in after closing.

Last half was very ordinary, multiple production delays and missed shipment.

The new half looks great. At run rate of 1mtpa we are guaranteed to make at least US$200 per tonne by my most conservative estimate an annual profit of US$200 million.

Below are my estimate of cost of production.

New Elk existing contract 70kt X 3 to Asia was sold at US$117 per tonne. that is roughly US$24.57m. This coal was sold at a margin above FOB cost so we can deduce the cost of production is between US$101 to US$97.5 at 15% and 20% margin respectively. Investor pack 20.01.2021 indicated FOB cost at US$88 per tonne. As off Dec 2021 the average sale price we could expect is US$302 from company's own announcement. Today's price is over US$500 per tonne...

Black warrior was supplying its High-Vol A coking coal as your run of the mill thermal coal supplying to local co op for power generation. Since its sold US$77 per tonne before AHQ then I assume the cost would be around US$67 to US$64 using the same methodology above.
Black warrior been the premium grade command a price of US$656.07 per tonne.

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Based upon the release - second half sales will average US$217/t - the already contracted sales appear to average US$175/t and the average for uncontracted but expected sales a vastly improved US$367

Based upon the first half expenses the company should overall make a profit for FY2022 - - achieving a run rate of 1mtpa by 30 June 2022 (which IMO is implied to be very conservative) will see a very different outlook for FY2023.

AHQ Price at posting: 53.0¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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Based upon the release - second half sales will average US$217/t...

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From the Floor question: "When will FEX start using rail to augment & de-risk their haulage solution?" | Fenix Resources

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The USA's dominance requires a domestic lithium supply chain. Chariot stands to benefit

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