At the announced production rates for Mn alloys (~360kt) , FeSi (~120kt) and Met Si (22kt) and at current prices, we are looking at approximately 800m $AU in annual revenue for full Sarawak ownership. Add the 13% Tshipi ownership and a bit for trading etc. If they can keep a 10% gross margin and sort the tax holiday extension, we are still looking pretty, even at the bottom of the cycle.
As usual in materials, the game is to invest in a solid business that can withstand quiet times and wait patiently for favorable market conditions. With costs relatively stable and a very large revenue compared to market cap, a decent increase in prices would see an explosion in net profits, substantial dividends and therefore a SP rerate.
I'll just wait patiently till that happen while monitoring what management is doing. They are definitely not perfect in regards to planning and capital allocation. It might take 5+ years though. Who knows ...
