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10/02/17
23:44
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Originally posted by speculator101
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PB - please don't take offense, but BLK were always going to need to do more drilling. What they have achieved to date drilling wise is quite impressive all on its own. Not so long ago (14 months) BLK had 4.7m ounces of resource... now they have 6.4m+ in resources (I wonder if any other ASX gold stocks have done as well? - 1.7m ounces in 14 months). This has given them sufficient confidence to push forward with the expansion study, which in the next 2-3 weeks will be released. This will outline the capex and mine plan (albeit with caveats that further drilling converts more resources into reserves, which IMHO it will as they have already been doing it for the past 2 years with the non-refractory ore).
BLK have also been wanting to hit the other older pits that have never been consistently drilled yet all have strong hits as per slide 19. The Wiluna mine goes U/G over 1km, similar structures are there, just not drilled out.
As the Jan 2017 presentation states, BLK have over 5m ounces not currently in the mine plan. BLK is not like MLX with most of its projects needing $2000 plus gold price to really allow them to actually mine the majority of their resources. BLK is looking to find the most profitable ore, unlike APEX who focused totally on U/G. It did not help APEX that their mining fleet was crap/underutilized/not maintained etc etc. BLK have 2 of the best mining groups doing the mining. APEX did it inhouse.....
Anyway, my only real confusion is why holders that like the BLK story would sell now? The risk of a highly dilutive raising is gone (at say $0.40, which could well have happened if BLK management had not held their nerve).
On a slightly more humerous topic, I look forward to reading the broker reports from the 2 who ran the raising. I bet they are going to be , ah, rather positive on BLK now.
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There are many ways to raise capital. Why don't they sell their coal assets?
Upgrading the resource yet again will not have much of an effect on the share price since the production target has been downgraded.
Apex Minerals AXM started with a substantially better AISC at $1,044 compared with BLK's $1,140 see https://hotcopper.com.au/threads/ann-march-2011-quarterly-reports.1445815/#.WJ2zgjt942w .
That Apex Minerals failure can be mainly attributed to the fact that they mined the site themselves is utter nonsense. Apex Minerals AISC was continually revised upwards as their production figures were revised downwards.
I consider 17 % in one raise quite substantial, ~35 m won't go very far so when considering the proposed expansion there is still a high risk for further dilution in the near term.