It’s not that easy. The Macbank loans mostly have to be drawn by...

It’s not that easy. The Macbank loans mostly have to be drawn by 30 June and $40m repaid by end December if fully drawn, they are circa $22m at the moment. Why would you draw the rest only to repay it in a few month? Please note that the description of the loans on the 5B is obfuscated to make it hard to see exactly what is actually going on. When I have time I am going to try to piece it together properly.

So, revenues if W5 keeps happily producing, $60m. Capex add W7 getting to production, OH seismic interpretation, other WE costs ignoring anything on SE so $35m already plus further$20m =$55m conservatively, debt reduction $22m gives $77m plus OPEX $25m gives $102m. Knock off Walyering leaves $42m.

How much cash is there in the bank? $14m plus $30m in J.V accounts. Being charitable about that let us assume that all of the JV cash is available to set against the capex listed above (highly unlikely as we know that every field has ongoing costs) then Strike will be more or less out of cash by 31 December this year. Quibble about my exact numbers if you will but the truth is the number is uncomfortably near to zero or worse.

Refinancing of Macbank loans or cash raise? Your guess is as good as mine as to which will be possible/affordable/less dilutive to shareholders. What will that do to the share price? My crystal ball isn’t that powerful sadly but I kind of feel it won’t necessarily be positive.