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Ann: 3Q21 APRA GIILS, page-5

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  1. 945 Posts.
    lightbulb Created with Sketch. 45
    The below chart from the half yearly presentation - shows the old and new curve so I eyeballed the chart and came up with this earnings pattern for the new curve.

    Yr1Yr2Yr3Yr4Yr5Yr6Yr7Yr8Yr9Yr10Yr11Yr12
    19.5%14.0%15.0%16.0%13.5%12.0%7.5%5.0%3.5%2.5%1.0%0.5%

    Then you add in GWP for the last 12 years (I did it in half yearly increments) and you get the earned premium, for example 2nd Half of 2020 GMA had $322.4 M in GWP - 14% or $45.1 M will be recognised as earned premium in this half.

    But because they have moved the curve (basically they are delaying the time that it takes for GWP to be recognised as earned premium) they have recognised too much premium in past periods (especially for years 2 and 3) so they are taking a ~ $12 M a quarter reduction in earnings to smooth out the transition to the new curve, this was confirmed on the earnings call. That was the basis of my comment, I reckon the quarterly has taken the full $ 24 M for this half year in the Quarterly.

    This is why posters like W534220 are so unconcerned by the CBA announcement, this thing throws off money for years even if they never write another policy. Unless of course there is a major crash in residential property prices, but that's a never ending debate.

    https://hotcopper.com.au/data/attachments/3749/3749440-8610899fa8f39eab644189c9d249ba2d.jpg
 
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