Ann: 3rd Quarter Trading Update, page-10

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Just_a_guy

5,420 Posts.

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23/10/17

20:49

Post #: 28129044
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Originally posted by Fire Bull ↑

I don't have a strong view on CYB as I haven't researched it although I have read madamswer's posts and found his arguments convincing (e.g. cost out opportunities, spin-off situation providing a bargain price) . I tend not to invest in lenders given it is impossible to know much about the quality of the loans they are writing until it is too late. The tendency is for all of them to operate too conservatively at the beginning of a debt cycle and too aggressively towards the end. This is akin to the way investors behave in bull/bear markets and is due to human nature.

As a secondary point, if you believe Ray Dalio's economic model then we have just seen the top of a long-term debt cycle in the West and therefore banking may not be as good a place to invest my money in the coming decades as it would have been in the 30 years leading up to the GFC. Although I tend not to base my decisions on macroeconomic factors, banking strikes me as the sector for which it is by far the most relevant to do so particularly because of the blackbox nature of banks' balance sheets. Having said that, any established business is a buy at the right price which may be the case with CYB.

re AIM, as I mentioned I have done very well out exporters but many of these are now trading at prices which would prohibit me from buying today. They include BVXP, XPP, TET, ABC, HFG, AMS.

I am currently more interested in beaten-up high quality UK consumer stocks because I think the reasons they have stumbled recently are temporary. These include SFE, CCT, NXT.

Others that I think offer reasonable value include ADT, CAKE, SPE, SOM.

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Thanks for sharing - just need a spare year or two to get stuck into them. I think I'm in the tiny minority who doesn't own a single Aussie bank apart from in super funds. I feel like the banking sector in the U.K. Still has a very negative/unloved sentiment apart from hsba of late. Another poster on here was discussing the virtues of HWDN - its starting to look well priced imo.

CYB Price at posting: $5.26 Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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