Ann: 4DS Technical Update, page-195

Smecsson,

Thanks for your your valuable contributions.

Having different argumented opinions is vital for this thread.

I personnaly don't think that we will see a big 1000% price increase for 4DS shares one morning.

What we will see, imo, is a prolonged rerating during one or two years with hicups on the road / Or an intermediate corporate event with a small premium.


I think short term shareholders might be interested to have a look a seasonnality for 4DS.
It keeps going down before going up higher.

The price almost always dive in august and september, before resuming its uptrend arround november and january.
(I learned that the hard way along the years...)

From this graph short term traders can pic their entry and exit price rather accurately most of the time (but not always).





As for the big payday, I think it will come after 4DS has been merged with another entity, not before.


The big picture

So, I expect some corporate news in coming months, becausethe model is exhausted, and I don't think it will support another CR.

My prefered scenario is a merger with HGST, with HGST being listed - one way or another - before or just after the merger.
The "scrip for scrip" price would be arround 0,30 USD.


Looking at the big picture, I don't think that neither WD nor Micron could continue in their present form in the global semiconductor context.

They must absolutely consolidate some way or another.

Imo, they wont merge as the process is now very difficult with many jusrisdictions agreement on the way. Wich could make the process to take three to four years (more if US/ China trade war is part of the equation).

The best way to go is through joint ventures or similar agreements. The Kioxia/WDC joint venture being a good exemple.
And also, a merger will be met with Apple, and the like, fierce opposition.
The semiconductor market is in the hands of large client companies like Apple.

Apple is happy with a situation where all the problems are on the Fabs side and all the money on their side.
That's why they helped the Bain consortium to control the board of Kioxia and forbide a merger with WDC. They will fight the same way any merger between Micron and WDC.

But what if WDC split into two or three parts ?

Maybe the next business model for medium semiconductor companies (other than fabless) is to build a network of medium sized companies linked by business or research agreements.

Network against pyramid. Horizontal developpment against vertical.
This will provide some form of consolidation without all the problems that come with traditionnal mergers.

Imo, medium sized semiconductor companies must and will try to change the ecosystem.
(same thing is happening int the commodities sector where the power is slowly shifting from the demand side - which control the monetary system - to the offer side).

My take is that Western Digital will split (The failure to merge with Toshiba Memory in 2017 2018 has shown that they will not be allowed to grow).

- And that HGST will becomes an autonomous part.

- And that the fate of 4DS will be decided in the process.

My hope is that the next meeting with HGST will decide to continue the 4DS development process outside Imec and in the HGST facilities.

But I do have a positive bias.


Just my personnal opinion, no financial advice.