4DS 0.00% 7.9¢ 4ds memory limited

I am not denying the that "up to one order of magnitude boost in...

  1. 237 Posts.
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    Confirmation bias here is so strong. Comparing the instant gratification of social media to an investment that has consistently pushed out their own proposed timelines by years is dangerous.

    You say 'Fact is, nothing particularly significant has changed aside from a delay of about 6 months for wafer iteration 3' but the company announcements highlight the gross confirmation bias here.

    Mar 2018 - Investor Presentation - "to now move immediately to production of a Megabit chip, a giant step forward"

    Sep 2018 - Update on IMEC Collaboration - "4DS remains confident that it will demonstrate a production compatibleprocess for its unique Interface Switching ReRAM technology for Storage Class Memory on imec’s megabit testchip on budget and on time (during 2019) as originally envisioned"

    Oct 2019 - 4DS progressing to imec's memory megabit platform. - "Chief Executive Officer and Managing Director, Dr Guido Arnout, commented “Having fabricated and tested aroundone hundred 300mm wafers, over 4 iterations, we believe we know how to repeatedly produce our memory onstate-of-the-art production equipment. We are excited to be progressing to imec’s megabit platform and lookforward to ultimately producing a megabit memory chip”."

    Nov 2019 - 4DS extends collaboration with imec - "The Company expects to complete the initial integration and be able to report results of the testing of this initial lotmid Q1 2020 barring any unforeseen technical issues."

    Please allow me to interrupt here in Nov 2019 - this is the first time they propose an "initial" platform lot, if you were invested in the company from 2017/18 you too would of expected the MB chip to be completed September 2018. The sell off in September 2018 was directly a result of the company's announcements as THEY were the ones setting the expectation to the market through their own
    announcements.

    Nonetheless, as Wally points out this is bleeding edge stuff, and tech people always get their timelines wrong. A 12 month delay is fine and they set the stage for a MB chip in 2019! Then throughout 2019s 4 iterations of non-platform lots, they push it out again into 2020 finally announcing they are progressing to the MB chip. No worries, they are moving in the right direction. So almost 2 years ago, November 2019, the company is pushing the timeline out by another 12 months. By my count, we are 2 years out at this point.


    Jun 2020 - 4DS Update: Progress at IMEC - Initial platform lot done, and iteration 5 of non-platform lot, which they have rebranded to additional non-platform lot.

    Aug 2020 - Company Update - they confirm the next 6 months of development and they are manufacturing a "Second Non-Platform Lot" (6th by my count, rebranded as 2nd) and the "Second Platform Lot" a strategic decision is to add transistors then fabricate a Third Platform Lot - "with all the control logic necessaryto read and write selected bits and bytes, and therefore be able to operate as a fully functional megabit memory".

    So, after pushing out investors expectations by 2 years, they are now confirming that the third and fully functional memory won't come until mid 2021. The 6 month delay you speak of is actually 3 years back n August 2020!

    Nov 2020 - New 4DS Chairman - Jim no longer chairman, welcome the Drs - is this not curious to anyone?!? (lets move on)

    Dec 2020 - Company Update - Essentially, they haven't started manufacturing 2nd platform lot due to technical issues, add another 6 month delay. Or continue to be myopic and call it just "a delay of about 6 months". My count is at 3.5 years....

    Feb 2021 - Positive Results from Second Non-Platform Lot - "Production of the Second Platform Lot commenced at imec on 27 January 2021".

    Now fast forward to our most recent announcement:

    Aug 2021 - 4DS Technical Update

    "New process breakthroughs have made 4DS’ Interface Switching ReRAM technology fully compatiblewith state-of-the-art high-volume DRAM and NAND production processes" AND "Third Non-Platform Lot wafers yielded an order of magnitude decrease in cell on-resistance, whichtranslates into an up to one order of magnitude boost in read speed"

    The purely opportunistic utilisation of spare equipment time to produce the 7th non-platform lot, has actually confirmed they were performing CRITICAL work in order to proceed to the 3rd platform lot. The goal they said they were on time and in budget to meet in 2019.


    I am not denying the that "up to one order of magnitude boost in read speed" is a good thing, however its not write speed, DRAM or exceeding DRAM, but I do agree it is very positive news in what is otherwise a big bag or s&*tty delays.

    "Third Platform Lot utilizing imec’s megabit memory platform is planned to start late Q3 2021" -
    This is good news, however its also the same thing they told us in 2018 and again in 2019, they proposed a somewhat structured outline of steps in 2020 and it was well received, only to pull some more tricks out of the bag at the end of the year and that brings us to today. There language is "fully compatible", "scalable to smallest cell geometries supported", "demonstrated switching" and as such the best possible outcome a working MB chip for the 3rd platform lot. The next best would be a 4th and final platform lot....I do not believe I will have any patience beyond that, as should a 4th platform lot be required, we will be at the end of 2022.

    Those thinking there are some clandestine negotiations going on because its so good no one can believe it, you are wrong. The company stated JD will be involved as a consultant for negotiations if/when they occur. So, if that was the case, JD wouldn't be selling his shares now would he?

    So call me impatient, chasing the instant gratification akin to social media if you like, however I consider myself exceedingly patient, very well researched on the company and getting tired of the poorly communicated delays which at best will be 4 years, not 6 months.


 
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