Smecsson,
All you said is true.
They dont respect their timelines and they don't say the truth to shareholders regarding futur capital rises.
And they have been doing this for the last three years.
To the point that the words "On time and on budget" make us laugh each time we read them on a 4DS update.
But ... we know all that.
It's a spec. They need time and money and they tell nice stories to get them.
The real question is : Do they have something or not ?
I believe they have and for two reasons that are facts and not positive interpretations :
1 - Because otherwise HGST would not have renewed the JDA.
I don't count Imec because I'm not sure Imec would help if this was not a HGST/WDC project.
2 - Because some entities are buying shares since september 2020.
Many here may think that comments on this thread can influence the share price. Imo, it is true only for short term movements, but the real share price movements have not be initiated by retail investors.
It all started on september 7 2020.
On that day, somebody bought 120 millions shares and pumped the price from 0, 045 AUD to 0,09 AUD (before going back to 0,07). There were absolutely no news that could explain why some entities suddenly decided to buy 120 millions shares - arround 8% of the dillluted capital - in one single day.
From there, 4DS started to rerate to reach 0,15 at the beginning of january 2021.
Then the price was pumped to 0,28 during the month of january before going back to the 0,165 - 0,15 zone in the following months.
Imo this second rerate was a pump and dump manipulation by some brokers. But I have no proof of that.
All I know is that some people have been buying large parcels of shares during the last quarter of 2020, and that stealth accumulation have probably occured since (but no proof for that second part other than what our in house TA experts said). Imo, what retail shareholders do or say on HC or elsewhere, has no real effect on the share price, except some movments on low volume days and for a short period of time.
If the 4DS share price was supported only by retail investors on HC, this price would still be arround 0,06 or 0,07.
it is not retail shareholders that sudenly decided to spend 8 millions AUD to buy 120 millions shares on a single day in september 2020.
This large acquisition on market was not motivated by speculation either, because you don't do that if you want to engineer a pump and dump.
ie: You make your acquisition on a longuer period of time to get a better price.For that reason, I consider as a fact that some other entities (other than sphisticated speculators and retail investors) are interested by 4DS.
From that fact we can derive another information : We don't know all the story.
For someone to disburse 8 millions dollars in a day, there must be a reason.
- There must be a reason why some entities bought 80 mllions shares after the september 2018 debacle.
- Ther must be a reason why some entities bought arround 50 millions shares after the big drop this week.
"Buy the Deep" is not an explanation here. 4DS is not an established mid cap with revenue.
It's an All or Nothing spec, supposedly the most dangerous kind of spec.
No fund or broker will buy the deep with that kind of company.
My conclusion here is that 4DS is not an All or Nothing company and that some peoples know why.
So, there is something.
But it is not for us to know, it seems.
Our level of information has not really changed between august 2020 and august 2021. If we were the only buyers on the market, why did the price rise from 0,05 to 0,15 ?
=> There is a third party out there who buy when we sell.
All we can do is to resist the various form of tree shaking we are submitted to.
Imo, we will not have long to wait to learn something.
This company is way too vulnerable and can't go on like this. The first shareholder who complain to ASIC for lack of transparency and accountability could derail everything.
So - imo - "something" will happen before the end of the year. Not sure it will be a 1 $ takeover, though.
(No financial advice)
PS - The preliminary Annual Report should be sent between now and the end of august (The annual report in its final form will be sent at the end of october, before the AGM).
The august annual report should show the Top 20.
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