Richard
Thanks for your detailed and well articulated posts (although not sure what platform you post from, but the format is not great).
Anyway, I agree with your estimate that the business generated between $10-14m in underlying NPAT so a ~12c /100m valuation can be supported (at least from me continuing to hold), but a few factors that also needs to be factored into that valuation:
- the market is not rational so it tends to overshoot on both ends ( the fact that the share price fell to 6c after printing a similar ~$6m 1H profit was totally irrational to me)
- the ABS transaction and potential for more seems to indicate a slight easing on their growth aspirations and that initial interest from investors plus the the potential for lower interest rates might ease their situation further
- their entire sector has been in the doldrums, but on the surface there does not seem to be any major issues with these type of lenders, and when we add the fact that Australian retailers are not falling over (in fact some are doing quite well), seems to point to the Australian consumer still being relatively healthy
- a negative will be the looming PEP loan of 50m which falls due towards the end of next year, but again if rates start to ease as expected next year, they will be in a very different position to negotiate with I'm sure a broader range of parties
Anyway, lets hope this price holds and it consolidates around this level while mgmt continue to grow this business.
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RichardThanks for your detailed and well articulated posts...
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12.0¢ |
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Mkt cap ! $96.00M |
Open | High | Low | Value | Volume |
12.0¢ | 12.0¢ | 12.0¢ | $8.196K | 68.30K |
Buyers (Bids)
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
---|---|---|
8 | 185164 | 12.0¢ |
Sellers (Offers)
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
---|---|---|
12.5¢ | 70566 | 6 |
View Market Depth
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
---|---|---|
7 | 184669 | 0.120 |
4 | 141456 | 0.115 |
5 | 143099 | 0.110 |
10 | 185878 | 0.105 |
17 | 1006365 | 0.100 |
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
---|---|---|
0.125 | 70566 | 6 |
0.130 | 121552 | 4 |
0.135 | 138084 | 4 |
0.140 | 261351 | 5 |
0.145 | 181015 | 4 |
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