After two months in the bush and hospital (OK now, thanks
@Integrity!), I've been getting back up to speed on my portfolio.
Counted six price-sensitive announcements in eight weeks, a fabulously granular Crux interview, and yet here we are
Funding seems to be the big hurdle, as it is for any prospective company wanting to green light their plant.
But I had to take another look at the 4th April announcement's conditional funding support.
The first four rows equals (up to) $1.4B.
Row 5 I'm unsure about, but KfW IPEX seem to be saying they're covering some of row 4's, and their net contribution is 70M?
So now $1.47B.
Then, turn to row 6, and remember the initial Sept22 quarterly, where it was slipped that K-Sure were looking at a $US190M contribution (290AUD at present exchange rate).
So by my calcs that could be (up to) $1.76B.
Then you have row 7, other commercial banks, but I'm not counting on the local yokels.
However, don't rule out fed govt support through some critical mineral doors opening (first $5M came through two weeks ago), or the QLD State government, in the vein of their $75M Queensland Resources Common User Facility over at the Cleveland Bay Industrial Park, also in Townsville.
Throw in some prepayment from LGES and POSCO, a slight reduction in the AFS capex numbers, and we may very well be looking at a pretty small equity component. On that, current holders had a shout out from Duane during the Crux interview, so we could be looking at a nice SPP.
Finally, check out what the east coast spot gas price is currently doing:
https://inqld.com.au/business/2023/05/30/cottee-hails-delivery-as-gas-prices-surge/This smart opex cover may well turn out to be a very tidy source of income.
Compared to some lithium hopefuls who may be still drilling out their resource and years away from anything approaching an advanced or detailed feasibility to prove up their chemical processing cred, our MC seems rather absurd
