I do not believe that the current ANA stock price has much to do with whether they/Hartshead are the Investor or not. The market has decided that the ANA Gas well is a bust, and the price lowered. We all wish the Gas well was a tremendous success as all of this would be easier. I will wait for the Gas pressure tests, as even if the well is not commercially viable, a strong pressure shows that there is Gas available under the right scenario. Whether Gas presence, but not commercial, is enough to warrant a JKA CR, I would tend to doubt it. People want guarantees. Unless a miracle is announced this week, I think JKA waits for the results of the ANA Oil drill results, sometime in late Q3 or so, and if successful will then see a CR to fund the second of 3 wells that Gemini's states can be re-entered, cleaned and frack'd like the first upcoming ANA Oil well.
This got me to thinking about the 3rd well Gemini has, and why didn't PVD/ANA sell the last 50MM or so of its FTT holdings - why would they want to hang on to it? On the chance that FTT does find a new medical product to pursue, requiring a CR raise, and they make their ~$160K stake quickly double on the announcement - possible Win Scenario #1. What about scenario #2 - FTT does not find a product to pursue, and their shareholders get mighty frustrated by Q4-2020, and since ANA has ~50MM shares, which not-coincidentally, in my humble opinion, is almost exactly 5% of the total, giving them the rights under Section 249D of the Corporations Act to force a shareholder vote, trying to get all along of what I expected to be able to use the remaining ~$3MM of FTT cash to go fund Milestone #2.
Which brings me to the constant conspiracy theories of Directors selling out and leaking information. I think in the ANA case, the Directors have put themselves into the best Win-Win situation they can with as many options open as possible, controlling all they can, but knowing they cannot guarantee that any one well in Poland will be successful - having a shot at 4 wells (3 Oil and 1 Gas) gives them the best chance of making lots of money for themselves AND making money for the shareholders. There are those that will jump on the Directors for not delivering money out of the first Gas well, but I think the picture is larger than that.
If I were a teacher, I would grade the ANA Directors at a "B". I knocked off points because they did not disclose up front that Hartshead was really Lewis/Matharau. And I am going to let the conspiracy theorists in a little bit here. I think that right before the big ANA sell off that the Brokers of the initial deal received their shares from Milestone #1, and immediately sold them to get the cash that they expect as a banker, not an Oil Speculator. Then, the news came out 2 days later about the water in the well, and the market reacted and collapsed the stock price. I don't think Director's sold, as they would be done in the business and miss the next 3 Oil opportunities, and go to jail.
However, I cannot completely dismiss the possibility that the Brokers, receiving the performance bonus weren't tipped off to sell (not the Director's themselves), to make the brokers content, only if they (CPS) are already lined up to be the brokers on the JKA, FTT and future ANA CR's and they thought it was in the collective's best interest to keep fighting for the next 3 shots.
As always, these are just my wild thoughts with no factual evidence.
JKA Price at posting:
0.3¢ Sentiment: None Disclosure: Not Held
