A4N 3.45% 90.0¢ alpha hpa limited

It's pretty clear that I prefer this stock over its peers....

  1. 13,636 Posts.
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    It's pretty clear that I prefer this stock over its peers. Interesting to see that Graeme Newing has stated the same opinion this week and he has just added to his recent purchase at 31c. I hope his timing is as good as when he bought ADN on its breakout to watch it rally hard straight after.
    ATC has had its funding issues for some time. Most recently because Macquarie wants an offtake with at least one customer to create pricing transparency to compliment their offtake agreement with Mitsubishi. They have no pilot plant but I can't see why they can't use an external lab again to produce further samples to try and secure an off take. Or they might build a pilot plant but that will set them back at least a few months. Or they might bypass Macquarie and replace that part of the debt with another lender or investors. That appears to be the current strategy. They have a process guarantee from engineering SMS which is a big positive but it appears to come at a high price when you compare capex. Hopefully they finish their financing and holders get rewarded but it's is the relative economics that make A4N much more compelling for me. Those relative economics should prove more rewarding for us over the long term IMO.
    FYI has rapidly caught up as a contender with their MOU with Alcoa. Despite that, IMO there still appears to be less risk here because our MOU's are not dependent on any further trial results. Our process and products have been demonstrated and proven for some time. I'm not allowed to have that view on the FYI thread without posters there doing everything they can to discredit me. False claims are made that I am wrong because the stock has rallied hard despite the fact that I never said it couldn't rally hard and that I said on several occasions that with the lowere mc, FYI could easily outperform if successful. Still I'm supposedly a down ramper there and accused of trying to create doubt because I saw a higher level of risk at that time. Clearly the market also saw more risk and hence the lower mc so I don't see how I was wrong. That risk has dropped significantly with the Alcoa MOU and the sp has rallied. No surprise that the sp would rally on reducing risk. Sp risk has increased there with the sharp move higher as late comers would have found on the latest pull back.
    A4N has no need for further trials to improve or prove anything further and for me, that implies less process risk and the market still appears to agree, with the sp continuing higher albeit more gradually and with less volatility than either ATC or FYI due to the higher mc.
    Despite the higher mc, projected cash flows are very high relative to the current mc so upside potential remains substantial to say the least. Despite the fantastic progress with the process and products, brokers still consider this a spec buy. Higher potential reward means higher risk of course as for any investment. Having that view on the other thread makes me a down ramper. I wonder if that makes me a down ramper here as well?
    I guess this is one of those longer posts that I am criticised about on the other thread for writing "essays". Funny thing is that the same thread can have longer posts and get plenty of thumbs up. Double standards are fine over there.
    Promising times ahead now that the sp has finally broken to new highs to confirm the long term uptrend, with funding and further off take news possible at any time. That should lead to a more rewarding couple of months ahead with volatility no doubt included on the back of the Trump situation and US elections next month.
 
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Last
90.0¢
Change
0.030(3.45%)
Mkt cap ! $904.4M
Open High Low Value Volume
87.0¢ 91.0¢ 85.5¢ $3.711M 4.151M

Buyers (Bids)

No. Vol. Price($)
4 12220 89.0¢
 

Sellers (Offers)

Price($) Vol. No.
90.0¢ 70477 1
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Last trade - 16.10pm 31/05/2024 (20 minute delay) ?
Last
89.0¢
  Change
0.030 ( 2.29 %)
Open High Low Volume
87.0¢ 90.5¢ 85.5¢ 790369
Last updated 15.59pm 31/05/2024 ?
A4N (ASX) Chart
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