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05/07/15
13:46
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Originally posted by eshmun
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"That further tells you how rubbery your "valuation" is."
Chris it is not my valuation it is just a calculation I made based on the information supplied by the company. If it wasn't intended to be used like that the company should have updated their assumptions by now and let the market know what the new minimum base case dilutive value is for that future revenue stream from the project. It just goes back to company's thin and selective disclosure again and how hard they are making it for investors to value and commit funds into the market. You can see this in the share price. Please don't attack me for the company's own foibles. A clear statement by the company about the valuation of this revenue stream together with a clarification of their future intent for the project (ie to continue the sales process or stay in the JV and "go mining") would do wonders for investor confidence and the share price in my opinion. But all they like to do is leave investors and shareholders guessing.
My post was designed so people can see how the value of the offer compares to the value of the discounted cash flows based on the company's own available information and it provided a link to my previous post that included all the exclusions from the value of those cash flows that I could think of. Not dishonest in any way, just a comparison to help people understand were the offer has been pitched at.
The immediate future is now in the judges and the company's hands (take the offer or don't take the offer). How long are they going to keep the market hanging? Maybe the chance to squeeze in another capital raising, their cash holding is probably starting to run short, depleted by all the legal bills, and prudent capital management would require contingencies in place should some of the court costs be award against them. Surely the advice they sought in respect of the value of the project after the last offer can't be too out dated. At least the share value is moving in the right direction for the minute, but as an investor I have almost lost patience with this company. Too much of a saga. Just get on with it and get down to business. The business of growing shareholder value. Stop it with the prima donna theatrics that have cost shareholders money, tell the shareholders the future plan, and execute the plan for the benefit of all shareholders.
Eshmun
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E said: "Chris it is not my valuation..."
E then said: "My post was designed so people can see how the value of the offer compares to the value of the discounted cash flows..."
It is clear you're attempting a type of valuation. You're trying to figure out what AGS is worth.
All I'm saying is your methodology is, well, how can I put this diplomatically, not the best.
So what is AGS worth? Funnily enough, this very morning, I started watching some videos from this EdX MOOC course that has just begun: https://www.edx.org/course/business-mining-curtinx-tbomx
And there's a guy in one of the videos who states: "the value of any mining company is the amount of ore, oil, reserves they have less the cost of extracting it".
If you're preparing a company for sale, obviously it's going to be less than that.
Who in their right mind would hand over potentially $1 billion+ of free cashflow for $71.6m?
AGS & Quasar Resources have been at war for 5, 6 years. Why on earth would you hand your opponent such a massive victory?