haha okay.
a bit rough, but I understand.
ok.
GCM, let's see.
I see the product application being heat sinks as the easy sell - directional high performance, etc.
So given its application in data centres, mining, and other industrial applications, I'd say there'd be over 200 big players (say big mining, big data, etc), thousands of medium to small players.
I'd say given the size and scale of the current team, and factoring in any capex to expand sales, plus the momentum a new break through material at reasonable cost, we could capture say 4 additional players this year, 8 to 10 the next. Just at a high level and based on our concentrated efforts going into the development of the large-scale plant and scaling up the pilot (whether or not that would be modular or not to simplify the risk of the build out remains to be undermined). This is also taking into consideration the relatively low capital requirements of a build out, but none the less a requirement to balance against a concentrated sales effort.
So assuming my industry uptake is roughly on point (and this is the bit I'm stretched on), there's a 12B market to capture on heat sinks (in terms of revenues) to my understanding. Of this, the top players would capture say 30% of it based on typical distribution assumptions, so 3.6B shared amongst the top players.
Say we then sell to a total of 12 players and say 1 of these is a large customer, we could assume either: 0.5% penetration of the large customer market (1/200 players assumed) or 0.2% penetration of the total market.
So rough penetration end of 2026 would amount to say....
$35m in revenue for a full year from the start of sales (which is mid 2026 currently)
Because I threw a blanket over the whole thing I'll take the base of the curvature on both ends and say a reasonable potential revenue by end 2026 financial year (June 2027) may be in the range of $25-$40m AUD.
Then working back on some gross margins, COGS would be rather low, so we should say 85% gross margins including material costs plus power.
Opex subject to sales force would be also not too heavy, but against the initial revenues might weigh in a bit. So we could say OPEX is a number like $12m-$14m (I won't do it as a percentage on early revenues as it doesn't scale).
Then that would suggest
REVENUE: $35m
GROSS: $29m round
EBIT: $15m
NPAT: $10.5m
as for free cash flows factoring there's a 30-day minimum payment term would be closer to break even to modestly positive cashflows around this time.
So on a basis of forward projecting a 10.5m NPAT FY2026 and the growing customer base I would either do a 15x on revenue or a 40x NPAT multiple (or 2.5% yield basis) or I could do a DCF and calculate discounted cashflows which in my experience work out to these multiples anyway subject to modelled growth.
which would provide me with an MCAP range of $420m to $540m at the stage that a quarterly announcement between July 2026 and June 2027 makes these metrics apparent (say Sep- Dec 2026 to be safe). Then we would also need to scale our plant, and raise capital accordingly, probably. I would base this on around 2B SOI at some point in the future.
which would result in a SP target of around 21c to 27c
which may be realized in September - December 2026.
Thank you,
S
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