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Solid work mate—this is one of the more grounded, thoughtful takes I’ve seen on GCM’s potential. The $12B heat sink market size checks out, and your assumption that just 12 clients could drive $25–$40M in revenue by FY27 is actually pretty conservative, especially if even one turns into a major buyer like a hyperscaler or industrial. The 85% gross margin feels a bit optimistic at first glance, but given this is high-spec engineered graphite with tight control over processing, it’s plausible—particularly in early-phase premium contracts. OPEX at $12–14M sounds about right too if they stay lean.
Your NPAT and free cash flow logic is sound, and projecting a $420M–$540M market cap off $10.5M NPAT or ~15x revenue multiple makes sense in this stage of commercial breakout. That 21–27c SP by late 2026 doesn’t feel like fantasy—especially not when you’ve baked in future dilution with a 2B SOI estimate. The raise just done gets them through to commercialisation without needing to go back to market, which is rare and a massive de-risking factor. If they lock in a few contracts and the product performs as expected, this won’t be one of those “maybe” stories—it’ll just be about scale and delivery. Great DD.
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green critical minerals limited
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Welcome!Solid work mate—this is one of the more grounded,...
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Last
2.0¢ |
Change
0.002(8.33%) |
Mkt cap ! $47.86M |
Open | High | Low | Value | Volume |
2.0¢ | 2.1¢ | 1.9¢ | $387.8K | 19.56M |
Buyers (Bids)
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
---|---|---|
10 | 1640784 | 1.9¢ |
Sellers (Offers)
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
---|---|---|
2.0¢ | 2194750 | 7 |
View Market Depth
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
---|---|---|
8 | 1659502 | 0.019 |
20 | 8912048 | 0.018 |
11 | 8730539 | 0.017 |
18 | 12486291 | 0.016 |
18 | 6212648 | 0.015 |
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
---|---|---|
0.020 | 2194750 | 7 |
0.021 | 5707267 | 13 |
0.022 | 3276662 | 9 |
0.023 | 3393831 | 10 |
0.024 | 6827149 | 7 |
Last trade - 11.45am 17/06/2025 (20 minute delay) ? |
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Ronald Miller, Non-Executive Director
Ronald Miller
Non-Executive Director
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