Solid work mate—this is one of the more grounded, thoughtful takes I’ve seen on GCM’s potential. The $12B heat sink market size checks out, and your assumption that just 12 clients could drive $25–$40M in revenue by FY27 is actually pretty conservative, especially if even one turns into a major buyer like a hyperscaler or industrial. The 85% gross margin feels a bit optimistic at first glance, but given this is high-spec engineered graphite with tight control over processing, it’s plausible—particularly in early-phase premium contracts. OPEX at $12–14M sounds about right too if they stay lean.
Your NPAT and free cash flow logic is sound, and projecting a $420M–$540M market cap off $10.5M NPAT or ~15x revenue multiple makes sense in this stage of commercial breakout. That 21–27c SP by late 2026 doesn’t feel like fantasy—especially not when you’ve baked in future dilution with a 2B SOI estimate. The raise just done gets them through to commercialisation without needing to go back to market, which is rare and a massive de-risking factor. If they lock in a few contracts and the product performs as expected, this won’t be one of those “maybe” stories—it’ll just be about scale and delivery. Great DD.
GCM Price at posting:
1.8¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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