Ann: 9 Spokes frees up ability to secure new bank opportunities, page-62

The accumulation here has been both clear and prolonged, 85m last week, 118m the week prior and 128m in the week that kicked off the move. 331m shares have traded in the last 3 weeks or >1/3 of the total SOI. Sure some of that will have been traders coming and going but the undercurrent is accumulation. Whomever is buying is clearly expecting the companies potential to transpire and with the 3 big deals they have in the pipeline why wouldn't it?

Companies like this need to hit critical mass, they need probably 20m in revenue to be self sustaining. From earlier numbers it appears that they make about $82 per SME p.a so on this rough assessment they would need about 240k SME's (or to improve their revenue per user). At present they have over 100k SME's after getting a good top up from the BNZ deal. BNZ have ~130k SME's which is not too bad but also not enough to make the company. BNZ are however owned by NAB so could well be a test case for the wider business?

The most promising lead however has to be the top 5 Noth American bank, these are banks with millions of SME's. If 9SP complete this deal it's transformation. Again the Major Euro bank which is at customer testing stage will make BNZ look like small timer.

I reckon the chart is pretty much telling the story here, the market expects a big deal and soon. Personally I'm somewhat hopeful that we get another few weeks without news to let the short term money depart so that when it comes the re-rate can occur without too much standing in it's way.  The chart shows some resistance in the 3.5c to 3.7c zone and then a bit of work to do in the early to mid 5's. IMO the Euro deal would likely take out the first resistance point and the North American deal should clear the second. Further news on the Visa collaboration, icing on the cake.