It isn't a valuation per share. It can't be as the unknowns are well, unknown. So a valuation is impossible unless you apply some estimates for the unknowns. It is an income per share which Strachan has also used previously. It assumes the amounts are recoverable and are priced at well head. Any P&L starts with income before expenses. The expenses will be very small. People can do their own spreadsheet and punch in the variables such as the gas price etc.
These spreadsheets show the potential and I did mine for myself as I wanted to know the possible income per share and the also from that I can estimate the potential value per share. Sure, we assume that the gas is there and is recoverable. The share price will be affected both negatively and positively by a number of factors outside the price and recoverable amount of gas. Flow rates possibly however they can pop another drill in to empty quicker if they choose (as they have mentioned). As I have said earlier there is no price earning multiple applied to these numbers either so in my view if the larger numbers ie 1tcf and above are hit then the share price will be higher than the income per share. Hopefully we get to find out in the near future
If posters believe the numbers to be too high then feel free to throw some numbers up with the rationale as to how they are achieved. Makes good discussion imo.
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