hey mate.... sorry for delayed response... Ive had major issues with HC as I use my PC to come here, not my phone... seems to be big ongoing issues with HC... any way moving on...
Full disclosure, I have sold out completely now... sold in 3 lots, originally a very small amount in the low 5's, then more in the mid 4's, eventually I let go at 4.1... I did ok out 9SP, could have done better if I trusted my TA from the start, but I expected a better bounce a few times... trading here was a little abnormal IMO... Please dont get me wrong holders, Im still a fan here, but there are a few things that worry me in the short term, so I have to trust my gut... I was going to hold this one out for a mid to long term as I believe this company will progress extremely well in time... my first sell was to get as close as I could to free carry... but sellers just kept building and building, did my head in a little to be honest...
what I think the problem is:
lets talk about the announcement, there is a lot left out... I read it a few times and basically VISA is acting like a middle man... seems VISA hasn't paid a cent, they are simply recommending this software to there 15,000+ clients, if a client takes it on VISA will get some sort of cut/compensation... but there are no figures... how much are they even selling it for, whats 9SP's cut?.... we are now sitting around $40-$50million Market Cap, I cant value the business as I dont understand the revenue involved with the VISA deal... I think the market knows that this is a big unknown, what happens if the revenue is only a few hundred thousand each QTR? see the drama here...
The other issue I have is the potential of a CR, so yes this agreement with VISA will potentially bring in revenue, but no one knows how much, hence I presume 9SP are going to raise money very soon due to the recent issue of money in the bank, I presume we have just under 4 million left, out goings I would say will be increasing with the VISA deal as more staff will be needed along the way...
Due to the potential need of a CR, also just to keep the ASX at bay and future auditing issues, it makes sense for the company to issue a CR... I dont think it will be huge, enough to get them through for the next 12months while the VISA deal and other clients gain momentum...
Massive sell down.... I honestly expect a announcement sometime soon regarding a "change in substantial holdings"... the selling pressure has been insane, large dumps over and over... sell side stacked to the the ceiling.... a large top 20 holder may understand that a CR is coming and revenue is going to take a while to surge, hence happy to cash in... lets face it, a few large holders would still be in massive profits even in the 3cent zone..
Im a little disappointed to be honest in the over all announcement, too much left out, so much uncertainty regarding revenue... this should have been made clear... but I think it was a smart play so as to let the SP run before there is a full disclosure of what revenue is expected... also its very early days, VISA's clients may take some convincing...
I still think this is a great company, massive potential moving forward... yesterday I argued over and over with myself regarding my sells... the first sell I felt happy about as it put me close to free carry, but watching my massive profits get eaten away made me eventually let go... I do prefer to let go at 20-30% profits as you mention, I averaged just under 50% in total, so not bad considering...
Some will question me as I am very upbeat here... truth is, I still am... but I think as mentioned above, the strong pull back has its reasons...
in blunt its all about revenue, there is nothing to give us a clue what to expect... large seller seems at play.... CR seems inevitable... IMO this is what is causing the sell down... I would look again for entry, but Im ready for a holiday... I only have 2 holdings left now in my portfolio... hoping I can clear out totally by end of week... due for a month or 2 off....
Sorry if I disappointed anyone here with my recent change of mind... but thats the ASX for you, we have to decipher whats happening and make strategic decisions...
Either way my opinion above could be out of wack, and there could be a clear bounce in the short term, but honestly I think some strong confirmations regrading Revenue need to be announced for confidence to set in..
I wish all holders the best, IMO long term holders will come out way on top... Im sure I will be back soon enough
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