VTX vertex minerals limited

Ann: A$11m Capital Raising to Accelerate Mining at Hill End, page-7

  1. 27 Posts.
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    I thought I would share my thoughts on this.

    The following equity is going to be raised:

    • $7.5 M conditional placement;
    • $3.5 M convertible loan; and
    • $1.0 M Share Purchase Plan (SSP).

    The terms of the capital raise are the same for each instrument, $0.21 per share and one (1) free attaching option per three (3) ordinary shares at $0.25 strike price (VTXO). The result:

    Type

    Equity Raised

    ($ M)

    Ordinary Shares

    (VTX - M)

    Attaching Options

    (VTXOA - M)

    1

    Conditional Placement

    7.5

    35.7

    11.9

    2

    Convertible Loan

    3.5

    16.7

    5.56

    3

    Share Purchase Plan

    1.0

    4.76

    1.59

    4

    Total

    12

    57.1

    19.0

    Total SOI is then ~308 M current plus 76 M future for ~384 M total (from my memory); or

    Total SOI is then ~358 M current plus 76 M future for ~434 M total (based on Gold Nerds)


    This represents a ~20 to 30 % dilution. Not a big deal IMO to de-risk the project moving forward.


    My back of the envelope valuation is as follows:
    • $ 18 M in cashflow from existing options (per Gold Nerds);
    • $ 4.8 M in cashflow from additional options (19 M at $0.25 strike price);
    • $ 4.5 M left over from capital raise (assuming 50 % contingency kept);
    • Indicated resource: 70,000 ounces produced at ~$2000 AISC per ounce and sold at $4500 per ounce (10 % markdown on spot price) for $175 M; and
    • Inferred resource: 155,000 ounces total for another ~77,500 ounces produced (assuming at-least 50 % of the inferred is converted to ore reserve) for another $190 M in cashflow (see profit per ounce in previous point).

    Total cashflow in the pipeline is $393 M. Assuming this is realized over the next 3-years at a 10 % discount rate, NPV10 is $325 M - excluding resource exploration upside at Reward, historic tailings being processed and the known resources at Red Hill and Hargreaves.

    This gives a conservative valuation per share of about $0.75 - plenty of upside if you ask me.

    Note: Please do your own due diligence and check my numbers.

 
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