I thought I would share my thoughts on this.The following equity is going to be raised:
- $7.5 M conditional placement;
- $3.5 M convertible loan; and
- $1.0 M Share Purchase Plan (SSP).
The terms of the capital raise are the same for each instrument, $0.21 per share and one (1) free attaching option per three (3) ordinary shares at $0.25 strike price (VTXO). The result:
Type
Equity Raised
($ M)
Ordinary Shares
(VTX - M)
Attaching Options
(VTXOA - M)
1 Conditional Placement
7.5
35.7
11.9
2 Convertible Loan
3.5
16.7
5.56
3 Share Purchase Plan
1.0
4.76
1.59
4 Total
12
57.1
19.0
Total SOI is then ~308 M current plus 76 M future for ~384 M total (from my memory); or
Total SOI is then ~358 M current plus 76 M future for ~434 M total (based on Gold Nerds)
This represents a ~20 to 30 % dilution. Not a big deal IMO to de-risk the project moving forward.
My back of the envelope valuation is as follows:
- $ 18 M in cashflow from existing options (per Gold Nerds);
- $ 4.8 M in cashflow from additional options (19 M at $0.25 strike price);
- $ 4.5 M left over from capital raise (assuming 50 % contingency kept);
- Indicated resource: 70,000 ounces produced at ~$2000 AISC per ounce and sold at $4500 per ounce (10 % markdown on spot price) for $175 M; and
- Inferred resource: 155,000 ounces total for another ~77,500 ounces produced (assuming at-least 50 % of the inferred is converted to ore reserve) for another $190 M in cashflow (see profit per ounce in previous point).
Total cashflow in the pipeline is $393 M. Assuming this is realized over the next 3-years at a 10 % discount rate, NPV10 is $325 M - excluding resource exploration upside at Reward, historic tailings being processed and the known resources at Red Hill and Hargreaves.
This gives a conservative valuation per share of about $0.75 - plenty of upside if you ask me.
Note: Please do your own due diligence and check my numbers.
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4 | 118100 | 0.255 |
10 | 169058 | 0.250 |
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5 | 124583 | 0.240 |
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
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0.270 | 10000 | 1 |
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