I am using the example of FMG; (I know different metal,...

I am using the example of FMG; (I know different metal, different margins; different....different....but really how much different??)
Go back 10 years ago FMG trading at 4.00 (go back 10 yrs before that and you'd be crying in your beer) what dividend did it pay this past year ..... $2.07 its SP $21 If we exclude the fact there will be further SP dilution due to CR/SE/Debt conversion on current 2.08bil shares with NPV of $2.4bil (see Investor Presentation 05/12) would suggest minimum SP of $1.20 ..... However with EBITDA of $573mil ; once the majority of loans are paid back and expansion has been self-funded, the majority (prob 60%) of this annual recurring revenue will be available to be paid out as fully franked dividends. I have always said ARU will end up with 2.5-2.7bil SOI (we are up to about 2.2bil counting all oppies and Performance Rights to staff), I truly think it will be closer to 3.0bil; as future expansion will prob req some CR.
1.If 100% EBITDA was distributed as dividends $0.573bil/3.0bilSOI = $0.191 per share pa
2. If 60% EBITDA was distributed as dividends $0.344bil/3.0bilSOI = $0.115 per share pa

All IMO, all subject to so many possible variables/outcomes including the whole construction/commissioning process going smoothly, the ore being present in stated amounts (and even more than Measured ie Nolans is open at depth, and allows for expansion) and of course that demand remains elevated beyond 2035 (which it should given the World is committed to NetZero2050) and that other deposits are not brought to production any faster than anticipated.
@Coxy3232 I would estimate a minimum SP around 2030 of $2 with MC of $5.5-6.0bil, and that is based on the presumption that NdPr prices are what management are currently estimating as the longterm price ($US130/kg)
Again lots of variables go into formulating estimates of company valuation and its not taking into account FOMO.

DYOR and calcs. There is never any guarantees in life and esp in Share Investing.
An excellent day of SP recovery, the CR wash n rinse is almost done. Next Tuesday is the day I think the $61.0mil new shares come to market so we might see 0.39-0.40 again then, then likely 0.50 in January esp if NdPr prices rise (like they did in early 2022) in the lead up to Chinese New Year period.