Went through a couple of relatively recent Wayne Heili interviews on youtube, here is a brief summary. Presented with no comment as to whether each point is positive or negative, though for the more clearly positive statements, obviously take with a grain of salt since it's the company CEO saying it, not DD conclusions. Much of this (especially the April stuff) is common knowledge, some of the May stuff I hadn't heard before, or not so concisely anyway.
BTW, to all not engaging in the constant bull vs bear slapfights in this forum section, please remember to use the
report button when you see baiting/flaming posts with zero substance or deliberately misinformative posts, regardless of which side they came from
April Proactive interview (~8 mins long) -
- FT probably to run for a total of 18-24 months, meaning it will run through the first half of 2022 - also mentions that production can start prior to FT conclusion if needed, just that FT will continue to improve forecasting ability etc.
- Knew they were running the FT on a relatively large pattern and results would be slow, no explicit statement as to why they chose this but stated that reason for pattern change was to speed up results. IMHO possibly a reaction to sector heating up, maybe original pattern was decided ages ago with little thought for completion time
- Now that grade is increasing, ion exchange system being set up
- About 15% of our contract volume out to 2030 is covered by our existing uranium - (27/05/2021 purchase will have increased this somewhat)
April Crux interview (~34 mins long) -
- Mentions the FT setback & improvements made (we know about this already from recent ann.)
- Has positive comments to make about DNN etc buying spot on market, even if they had to overpay slightly. Slight brag about PEN's ability to actually sell its uranium after buying it
- Points out that UPC/Yellowcake etc already fill the commodity investment niche, doesn't rule out PEN getting into that space but says it's not an easy choice. Seems like PEN having contracts for easy disposal of the uranium is the main reason he'd be theoretically willing to make the bet of buying on spot - (27/05/2021 as has now happened)
- Utilities will be favouring mid-term contract market as spot increases, although $30 still a low and attractive price for now
- Startup capex: $6M to convert facility to low-pH, & about 6 months from that decision to get back into production, these numbers have been consistent and known for a long time
- Will also be investing another $12-$15M in new well fields to increase returns - sounds like this amount is a requirement for decent volumes (~1.15Mlbs/year) (from a 53.6Mlb resource)
- i.e. $20M total capex to get to max production
- DoE reserve program is progressing. Note that future years' funding will be about double this year's ($75M -> $150M). PEN definitely seeking to be involved
May Proactive session (CEO investor sessions uranium webinar 25th may - from about 17 mins onwards)
- For that 1.15Mlbs/year $20M capex, AISC is $41/lb. This is considered full capacity at the moment
- For an eventual growth to 2.3Mlbs/year, would require $43M capex, then AISC drops to $31
- Note that license supports up to 3Mlbs/year maximum at present
- Talks about the new ISR pattern with the central injection wells, response times improved, recovery stream pH "approaching the target", etc etc
- Supposedly ion exchange system functional now, as are investigations of alternative techniques. News on this soon hopefully!
- Apparently finding near-term supply is very hard right now. 6-month delivery ok but immediate delivery difficult.
- PEN's contracted numbers (that 15% to 2030 mentioned previously) are 5.5Mlbs @ ~$52/lb, 4.1Mlbs committed and 1.35Mlbs at customer election
May Proactive session questions (same video, from about 33 mins onwards)
- Predicting that they will make decision to restart in mid 2022 and be in production at the start of 2023
- Expresses continued confidence in the stage 2 $31/lb AISC
- OTC volume is ~1.5M/day
Edit: BTW, feel free to double check these points (the videos are easy to find on YT from the description I've given of each), bullet points are in roughly chronological order through each video. Keen to know if anybody disagrees with my characterisation of any of the points made, or has some nuance or counterpoints to add
(20min delay)