no way that 1.7b is still valid after 2-3 years of massive inflation, particularly for building materials and labour. realistically this is a $2b+ project and the only way they are getting the cost down is to stage the build into 2 stages so the upfront cost is not as scary.
in any case the lenders won't be keen to provide 100% of funding. no one does 100% LVR for mining projects i think realistically 60-65% LVR on $2b? so $1.2b of debt, $0.8b of equity. where are we gonna get $800m equity? very likely nowhere. that's why it's gonna be staged. waiting for the staging announcement and updated capex after bechtel/hyundai have done their work. probably back end of this year. all these could change depending on the amount and quality of offtake agreements though.
ASM Price at posting:
$1.03 Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
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