Good summary. I share my workings now I'd budget a little...

Good summary. I share my workings now

I'd budget a little higher opex for cost pressures. I think the region is going full tilt in production (eg notice it's tough to get drill rigs on site), so makes sense to add $1-2 for extra cost. I assume $35 breakeven in my model. I think the nisku wells are going to be higher cost also, and I expect them drilled next half - anyone want to correct me here?

on the sale price however, some is hedged at 80 or so, approx 1/3rd of older wells so 1,500 boepd I believe. So a more real price is 90 USD, also consider we get wcs prices + slight premium for higher quality. the spread is around 13 steady now since they fixed up the pipeline damage last December. So that's about 60 USD margin I think. slightly less than your calc

I agree on boepd numbers. 4,300 was exit rate for Jan. 4 more wells to tie in plus 10 more wells to drill in 2H, definitely over 5000 boepd avg for year taking into account declines. Likely 5,500 with a huge exit rate closer to 6,500-7,000 (with the 10 new wells online)

60 usd x 5500 boepd = 120m gross cash flow , take out 40m capex, assume 10m extra for hedging losses and maybe another few mil for sundry head office costs leaves US 60m free cash flow. 90m aud. strip out 20m to pay back debt (10m already paid by cap raise) leaves $70m aud

"up to 30% return back to shareholders" = 20m return to shareholders. if all paid as dividend we are looking at 18% yield at current share price

the company will also have no debt, $50m net cash on balance sheet after paying out shareholder returns, leaving an expected enterprise value of $70m which is less than the EBITDA, 6,500-7000 boepd production rate, and also includes montney land value on top

Of course based on oil prices holding where they are. But I think they're heading much higher.